How Prop Firm Rules Change Your Probability of Passing
Compare the whole rulebook with the same strategy, not just the advertised profit target.
EDGEVERIS JOURNAL
Ideas worth testing.
Estimating Your Prop Challenge Pass Probability with Monte Carlo
Turn a trade history into probabilities of passing, failing and remaining unfinished without confusing simulation precision with evidence.
Kelly Sizing for Prop Trading: Growth vs. Passing
Understand what Kelly optimizes and why a challenge's loss boundaries require a different sizing test.
The Expected Value of a Prop Challenge
Connect fees, the chance of passing and the chance of actually receiving payouts in one cash-flow model.
Losing Streaks and Drawdown Limits in Prop Trading
Calculate streak probabilities correctly and distinguish them from the chance of breaching an account boundary.
Why Account Size Is Not Your Risk Budget
Convert nominal account size into actual loss headroom and understand which boundary can end an attempt.
Why Data Feeds and Execution Models Change Backtest Results
Trace the difference between a chart signal and an executable fill before trusting a profitable backtest.
Challenge vs. Funded Trading: Testing Two Risk Profiles
Keep the trading logic comparable while testing whether different sizing policies suit evaluation and payout objectives.
From Python Strategy to a Reproducible Backtest
Build a test that can be rerun, reconciled trade by trade and compared without mixing code, inputs or data.
Optimize for Stability, Not the Best Backtest
Read parameter neighborhoods, costs and out-of-sample evidence before choosing the highest historical score.
COT Positioning Without Look-Ahead Bias
Align positioning data with its actual availability and compare strategy equity and drawdown across interpretable regimes.
Macro Regimes with CPI, NFP and Point-in-Time Data
Separate economic states, release events and revised observations before connecting macro data to strategy performance.
The Deflated Sharpe Ratio: Accounting for Multiple Tests
A strong Sharpe ratio means less after a large search. Learn how to put the winner back in context.
The Probability of Backtest Overfitting
Test the selection process itself: does the in-sample winner keep its rank when the data change?
Trade Shuffling vs. Block Bootstrap
The same trades can produce very different paths. Choose a simulation method that matches the question you are asking.
Exit Efficiency: MFE, MAE and Uncaptured Profit
Separate movement you observed from profit you could actually capture, then test alternative exits without hindsight.
Portfolio Drawdown Beyond Correlation
Diversification depends on when losses happen, how exposure overlaps and what capital the combined strategy actually needs.
Seasonality or Chance? Testing Calendar Effects
Find out whether a weekday, hour or month is genuinely useful, or simply the best-looking slice of your backtest.
Walk-Forward Testing and the Reused Holdout Problem
Test what could have been known at each date, and understand why repeatedly opening the same holdout changes its meaning.